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Academics See No Clear Exit for Johnson or Replacement PM_我的网站

一 |     AI摘要      高雄市长选战进入百日冲刺，国民党柯志恩与民进党赖瑞隆对决。

二 |     British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fighting for his political life but his opponents have few options for replacing him — so say two senior academics.,Calls for Johnson to go have reached fever pitch since Chris Pincher, the Conservative MP he appointed as deputy chief whip in February, was sacked for drunkenly groping two men at a posh private members' club in London.,This week it emerged that Johnson had been informed of earlier sexual assault claims against Pincher before he promoted him — leaving cabinet colleagues were embarrassed at having to defend the ever-changing official line.,Laura McAllister, professor of public policy at the Wales Governance Centre, told Sputnik nobody should take Johnson's political demise for granted.,"He survived so much in a way that few other politicians have ever managed to, particularly those in senior public office and prime minister," McAllister says. "He operates by a completely different set of rules and principles and ethics, which we would assume would be his undoing, but actually in reality he seems to have been able to ride the storm".,The academic points to Johnson's survival of the scandals around his advisor Dominic Cummings, 'Partygate', his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic before the Pincher affair. But she conceded that the spate of ministerial resignations led by Sajid Javid as health secretary and Rishi Sunak as chancellor of the exchequer were "hugely significant.","Two Cabinet members who sat in Cabinet yesterday morning had resigned without warning by the evening," the professor stresses "I think it's also fair to say that both of those individuals are thinking about their own potential bids to stand as the next leader of the Conservative Party and therefore timing is very much predicated on that.",McAllister says things have changed since the days of Margaret Thatcher, who resigned in 1990 after failing to win a leadership challenge by an overwhelming margin.,"[T]here was a much stronger Cabinet code, a ministerial code that was upheld broadly, or if it wasn't upheld, then there were consequences," she says "That's not the case now, and it seems very likely that Johnson will not resign of his own accord.","He still has a base of support, of course, even though that’s dwindling away now," she adds.,The academic also doubts that a general election would break the political deadlock.,"Whilst Labour are a few percentage points ahead, they clearly aren’t making sufficient headway to be confident of winning a majority," McAllister says. "The best they could hope for in the current polling would be a minority government and potentially having to seek coalition partners".,Those could include the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party (SNP), who would demand a repeat of the 2014 independence referendum as the price of their support. Ironically, independence for Scotland and its 59 parliamentary seats would shore up the Conservative majority in Westminster and make Labour nigh on unelectable.,"[Labour leader] Keir Starmer has already ruled out any deals with the SNP for obvious constitutional reasons, and therefore with Plaid Cymru in Wales," she points out, "So it seems unlikely that that route to power is open".,McAllister believes a new Tory leader would at least enjoy a "honeymoon period" bounce in the polls.,"And who knows, were Johnson to be defenestrated, it might be that a new leader might choose to capitalize on the honeymoon period and call an earlier election," she speculates.,Beleaguered BoJo Battles With Opposition at Weekly PM's Questions12:52 GMT,No 'Coup', But Then Who?,Mark Garnett, a politics professor at Lancaster University and author of the books "The British Prime Minister in an Age of Upheaval" and "From Anger to Apathy: The British Experience" thinks Johnson has no hope of survival. But he does not see how the party can push the PM out if he refuses to jump.,He says Javid and Sunak's resignations are "serious blows" to Johnson, but they are only "symptoms of a more general crisis of leadership".,"Johnson has been involved in too many incidents which raise questions about his personal integrity," Garnett says, with ministers told to defend the PM against allegations that turned out to be true. "In effect, they have been asked to lie in public on his behalf. Their patience has finally snapped.",But the professor does not see the near simultaneous resignations as a "coup", stressing: "The most surprising thing is that ministers have tolerated Johnson for so long".,While Sunak was seen as the favorite to succeed Johnson just six months ago "he is being held at least partly responsible for the country's economic problems and his chances of becoming prime minister are now very remote," Garnett says. "Sajid Javid's chances are greater, but Conservative members (who make the final decision) seem more attracted to the Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, who has not resigned.",The academic believes MPs are worried that Johnson is now an "electoral liability" who could cost them their seats at the next general election. "The party has just lost two by-elections in crucial seats, and the main reason given by those who voted against them was Boris Johnson's leadership," he stresses.,But the problem of how to remove Johnson from office if he will not quit remains.,"Currently the party's rules make it impossible to hold a vote of confidence for another year," Garnett points out. "It is very likely that those rules will be changed within the next ten days". But he believes if a vote could be held now, "Johnson would certainly lose and be forced to resign".。

三 | 柯志恩重温四年前谢票画面，誓言深耕基层、兑现承诺，全力冲刺赢回高雄。         年底高雄市市长选战正式进入倒数100天冲刺阶段，蓝绿对决格局明朗。民进党由民代赖瑞隆接棒参选，国民党则再度征召民代柯志恩再战高雄。选前关键时刻，柯志恩重温四年前落败谢票时的哽咽画面，感性告白初心，强调四年深耕从未间断，誓言全力以赴、赢回高雄。

四 |     柯志恩20日于脸书发布四年前谢票片段，画面中真挚哽咽的模样再度触动人心。

五 | 她坦言，当年强忍泪水的动容，不只是感动，更是对高雄市民许下一辈子的承诺。四年前那句“我会用下半辈子回报高雄”，四年来始终铭记于心、从未淡忘。    柯志恩细数四年深耕足迹，为了贴近基层、倾听民意，柯志恩正式定居高雄、落地扎根，不分晴雨寒暑，走遍高雄38个行政区。她强调，深耕县市从来不是选举口号，而是日复一日的踏实坚持，高雄早已成为她人生下半程最深的牵挂与责任。    面对倒数百日的关键战局，柯志恩郑重许下三大冲刺决心。她表示，百日不是冰冷数字，而是翻转高雄的最后机会。未来她将加倍付出，以双倍汗水奔走基层、紧握市民双手；坚守初心承诺，用实际行动兑现每一句诺言、不负民众期待；全速冲刺奔跑，不畏辛劳、分秒必争，为高雄未来拼尽全力；更团结所有希望改变的力量，凝聚民意、共创崭新格局。    柯志恩指出，四年前，她是带着深情返乡的归人。四年后，她是坚守基层，从未懈怠的守护者。此番再战，不是为证明个人输赢，而是证明高雄值得更好的未来。

六 |     柯志恩坚定喊话，说到做到、使命必达，将用最后百日全力冲刺，期盼百日之后，让高雄看见改变、看见希望、迎来全新翻转。

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